The current market is in a weak oscillating market. During the oscillation process, market funds showed a net outflow situation and the magnitude gradually increased. After a small increase last week, due to the large uncertainty in the future market trend, the main funds have begun to gradually convert into profitable chips. In addition, the market volume continued to shrink, reappearing in stages, reflecting the apparently weak willingness of market capital to push up the index, and the market participants' participation enthusiasm was very light. We believe that under the overall sluggish market sentiment, the probability of stocks pointing to breakthroughs is far lower than the probability of market weakness adjustment. Even if there is an opportunity in the market, it may only be carried out in a local market.

Main board earnings rose steadily, and small and medium-sized GEM earnings fell

As of April 30, in addition to * ST-en-carbon 000 511, can not regularly buy as disclosed, A-share market listed companies in 2016, 3204 annual report and 2017 quarterly disclosure has been fully completed. The data shows that all listed companies achieved net profit growth of 5.43% and 19.84% YoY in 2016 and the first quarter of 2017, respectively. Excluding banks and petroleum and petrochemicals, net profit growth in the first quarter of 2016 and 2017 was 10.55% and 30.76%, respectively. Overall, the profit growth rate in the first quarter has rebounded to a large extent.

From the perspective of the sector, the net profit of the main board in the first quarter increased by 19.72% year-on-year, which was a significant increase compared with 2016. The first quarter net profit growth of the small and medium-sized board was 26.38%, which was lower than that in 2016. The GEM's net profit growth in the first quarter was 11.27% year-on-year, a sharp drop from 2016. From the perspective of sector performance, the difference in profitability between the main board and the small and medium-sized board in the first quarter will also affect the performance of the relevant index to a certain extent. It is expected that the differentiation between the stock market indexes will become more serious. The performance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index is relatively better than the performance of the CSI 500 Index. In particular, under the influence of market rumors that the IPO is likely to implement the “report immediate review” system and the performance of related stocks is falsified, it is expected that the GEM index will still face certain downward pressure.

Financial strict supervision superimposed funds expired, May liquidity is difficult to loose

The market liquidity situation is very obvious before the “May 1st” festival. Since mid-April, the interest rate of Shibor has continued to rise. The overnight lending rate has soared from 2.38% on April 12 to 2.81% at the end of April, setting a new high since April 3, 2015. The interest rate on government bond reverse repo has also continued to rise. In May, we expect that there will be no significant improvement in market liquidity, and the overall situation will continue to maintain a tight balance. Specifically, there will be more than 900 billion yuan of funds due in May, including MRL of 409.5 billion, which will expire at 230 billion yuan and 179.5 billion yuan on May 3 and 16. From the time point of view, the time point for the expiration of funds is concentrated in the middle and early May, and there is a funding gap of nearly 500 billion yuan this week. Judging from the persistently suspended net open market in the early stage of the central bank, the determination of the central bank to maintain a stable and tight monetary policy will not be shaken in the short term.

Since Guo Shuqing took over as chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a series of regulatory documents to specifically manage the three sets of profit-making behaviors such as “regulatory arbitrage, arbitrage arbitrage and related arbitrage” of the banking industry, and evaded supervision activities for inter-bank business, wealth management business and off-balance sheet financing. Self-checking and correcting. In terms of implementation, the regulatory layer repeatedly emphasized the strict implementation of existing policies, restrained the behavior of commercial banks, and promoted financial “de-leveraging”. Judging from the recent trend of small and medium-sized bank stocks falling, the financial supervision caused by the CBRC’s strict investigation of subcontracting business has not completely stopped. In the second quarter, it is also the concentrated period of financial supervision policies. The bureau fabrics with persistently tight funding will be difficult to slow down. On the whole, the tight liquidity situation in May will bring a lot of test to the market. Especially in the context of the current limited investment intention of incremental funds, the tight balance pattern of liquidity “easy and difficult to loose” will also continue to suppress the market rebound.

In summary, the trend of stricter financial regulation is still continuing, and there is a tightening of expectations on the funds side. From the perspective of the disk, after the stock index has undergone a short-term substantial adjustment, the market risk has been released to a certain extent, and there is limited room for further substantial decline. The market volume can reproduce the staged quantity, lack of financial support, and the rebound is limited. Looking ahead to the market, we believe that the futures index will fall into a narrow-range oscillatory market. Investors are advised to continue to pay close attention to the changes in market volume and the emergence of new hotspots. (Author: Cinda Futures)

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