Market participants believe that from the perspective of supply and demand in the domestic cotton market, the lack of new annual production needs to be widely recognized by the market. The supply of domestic cotton market is expected to be tight, and the cotton price in the later period is also relatively optimistic. However, due to the fact that cotton has a strong centralized market and full-year consumption characteristics, the market supply pressure is relatively high during the period when Xinmian is in stock, and the price of cotton is very easy to fall.

"On the morning of the 2nd, in the vicinity of the 13,850 yuan / ton price, there were more than 50 contracts for 1701 Zheng cotton, but I did not expect that after the opening of the warehouse, the market did not give any chance to close the profit, and the price was almost a straight line. After that, more than 30,000 yuan will be lost after the stop-loss.” Cotton futures investor Li Qiang told the Futures Daily reporter with a sad face. Since mid-July, the cotton price has dropped by 2,500 yuan/ton, and the current price is no longer considered. Too high, he built some long positions according to the original plan. He did not expect to be "fighted" at once.

At present, the domestic cotton production areas have entered the picking period, and some newly-produced seed cottons are already on the market. It is expected that all producing areas in the middle and late September will enter the new seed cotton concentrate listing period. This situation will continue until the end of the year.

From the perspective of supply and demand in the domestic cotton market, the lack of production in the new year needs to be generally recognized by the market. The supply of domestic cotton market is expected to be tight, and the cotton price in the later period is also relatively optimistic. However, because cotton has a strong market-oriented, annual consumption characteristics, investors should be able to grasp the rhythm and timing in the specific operations, mainly due to the market supply pressure during the period of listing of new cotton concentrates. Large, the price of cotton is very easy to fall. If you enter the market at this time, the probability of loss will be greater.

It is understood that in the new year Xinjiang's cotton production is estimated to be 3.6-3.8 million tons, and the mainland cotton production is estimated to be 700,000-800,000 tons, and the total output is expected to be 4.3-4.6 million tons. Taking a median of 4.4 million tons, in the case of an estimated total demand of 7.6 million tons, the estimated cotton import volume will be 1 million tons, and the domestic cotton supply gap in the new year is expected to be 2 million to 2.2 million tons. Although the domestic cotton production in the new year is insufficient, there is a gap in supply, but there is no need to worry about the interruption of supply. The main reason is that the sale of State Reserve Cotton will make up for the lack of output and the supply of domestic cotton market is guaranteed.

“This year Xinjiang's cotton weather conditions are more suitable for cotton growth. From the point of view of the overall length, horse value, and strength of the currently picked Xinjiang cotton, they are all better than last year.” This year Xinjiang local production and construction regiments and other places pay more attention to cotton planting varieties. The selection and breeding work, together with the farmer's field management at the critical stage of cotton growth, is expected to reduce the cotton planting area in Xinjiang this year by 10%. Due to the current overall better growth of cotton, it is expected that the increase in unit production will be larger. This year's total Xinjiang cotton The output is estimated to be higher than last year. It is initially estimated that the amount of cotton in the input of rolled cottonseeds will exceed 3.6 million tons last year. However, from the point of view of cotton growth in the Mainland, due to the prevailing rainy weather in the early stage of cotton growth and the reduction in the cotton planting area in the Mainland, it is estimated that the yield, quality, and quality of cotton in the Mainland are all inferior to last year.

Before mid-July, both domestic and foreign cotton prices showed strong upward momentum. The main factor that boosted cotton prices at that time was that the market expected the output of major cotton producing countries, such as the United States and India, to decrease. At the same time, it is expected that the downstream demand for cotton in China will increase significantly. . Judging from the current market conditions, the weather in the cotton-producing areas such as the United States and India has improved, and its cotton production will not change too much. At the same time, after the short-term rapid growth of the downstream demand in the cotton industry in China, the purchase demand of cotton textile companies quickly fell due to the extension of the sale of the State Reserve Cotton. This is the current decline in domestic cotton prices. main reason.

Recently, due to good weather in the US cotton region, the U.S. dollar index has strengthened, and US cotton prices have continued to decline. According to reports, the weather conditions in India's cotton production areas are also better than last year. The latest data released by the Cotton Association of the country show that this year's cotton yield in India will be higher than last year, and the total cotton supply will reach 6.8 million tons, including new cotton. The output was 5.712 million tons, only 0.5% lower than last year.


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