Don't let the market become a luxury when it comes to the market. Every time when the price rises, I always think about when it will fall. If it falls to any position, I must close the sorrowful words, but when it comes, it is timid or afraid. I don’t want to rebound. If I rebound, I must, really rebound and start to doubt life and judgment. How can I make money without a planned order? The uncertainty of the future is the inevitable result of the transaction. You can’t be sure what will happen. Or what doesn't happen, do what you think you can control and feel it's OK, let it slowly gradually become part of the probability of success, and see if it can succeed in the end. Of course, we still face a lot of challenges, especially when the accident comes to the question of how to do it. When you are ready to pull the trigger, you need to be firm, but you should also consider the possible accident. This is not to let you not perform. And decisive, he is also the inevitable transaction
Last week, the non-agricultural employment report was released before the continuation of the trend, so the Fed’s expectation of a rate hike in September was “very rampantâ€; but the US presidential election in November will come as scheduled, which may cause the Fed to raise interest rates in September. In the "suspended case"; and even more institutions expect that the US economic growth and inflation data is expected to be disappointing, so the Fed will not raise interest rates from now until the end of 2017. The Fed’s interest rate hike is “suspicion cloudâ€, is it going to drift from autumn to autumn this year, or more?
- Although the US July data boosted the probability of raising interest rates, the Fed will not raise interest rates soon
First, the US economy is weak. In the first quarter of 2016, the US economic growth rate was 0.8%, and in the second quarter it was 1.2%. The average level was lower than the average of the past two years. The growth rate in the four quarters of 2015 was 2%, 2.6%, 2%, and 0.9%, respectively. The average annual growth rate in the past three years was 5%, and the economic growth rate was lower than historical data. This is why the Fed will not raise interest rates soon. Second, the inflation rate has not reached the 2% Fed target. Why should we push up the inflation rate? First, inflation helps resolve debt, and raising inflation can keep debts sustainable and reduce deficits. Second, inflation supports the rise in bond stocks. Third, under inflation, companies increase their investment and increase the number of employed people. Third, maintaining low interest rates can help avoid a recession, raise interest rate bond prices may fall, and raise interest rates to tighten the currency to reduce bond market liquidity.
For the current market trend, there is no need to repeat it too much. A good non-agricultural plan will not allow the Fed to raise interest rates. It is only expected to be upgraded. Under the global and US economic growth slowdown, the Fed will not Risky interest rate hikes, coupled with the support of the entire macro fundamentals, the gold and silver market outlook is still impressive, even if the non-agricultural bad weather on Friday caused the suppression of gold and silver, but the ETF still maintains an increase, from the other side to support the price increase.
Furthermore, with the end of the US general election, if the Fed raises interest rates before the end of the year, it will put pressure on our financial institutions, how to break through the containment of the US dollar hegemony, maintain the stability of the financial environment, or become a new country including China, all need to cope with The problem. We should plan ahead and be well prepared in advance. But for our rival US, raising interest rates means and only means one thing, the US economy officially emerged from the subprime crisis.
- crude oil silver analysis and operational recommendations
On Monday (August 8th), crude oil rose nearly 1 US dollar to 42.85 US dollars per barrel. The oil price rose because OPEC members once again called for frozen production, which caused many bulls to do more technical corrections, but this increase can only be seen as a technical rebound. There is no real upside momentum, and the probability of achieving a frozen production plan is very small. Russian oil officials recently said that the current oil price is stable, the production reduction plan does not exist, and there will be no frozen production, but it is possible to actively discuss with OPEC. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, etc. are increasing production to gain market share, and will not freeze production. It is doomed that this frozen production will not be realized. At present, the short-term contract for crude oil futures has reached its highest level since 2006, and the total has increased to 218,623 as of August 2, indicating that bearers are mostly, and the increase in supply will also encourage short positions to continue to add positions. Therefore, the short-term oil price rebound will not be too large. In 4 hours, the price continued to rebound in the short-term moving average. Brin's overall extension was upward, and the cyclical moving average was in a long position. The MACD gold cross kinetic energy was exhausted, the red column was shrinking, the stochastic indicator was down, and the rebound since 4 hours. Make up the demand. After the oil price has risen continuously, the kinetic energy of the continuous increase is insufficient.
Crude oil: 1:43.2 short, stop loss 43.7, target 42
Silver, yesterday's silver meets our expectations, the day's market volatility, the daily line closed with the Yang cross line; from the disk point of view, for the medium-term overall market, we keep the short market unchanged, yesterday's highest impact after 19.9 resistance, retracement, daily line On the BOLL mid-rail, the short-term will continue to be weak, so silver should not chase more than 19.5, the following focus on the daily trend of the rising trend support 19.60/50 area, is also the lowest point yesterday, here will be repeated before the break In the short term, there will be a shock or similar rebound; if the position is broken below 19.50, the market will further test the strong support in the 19.20 area below, and the long-term support! From the top, the pressure is focused on the 20.0 area. In the last trading week, the bulls focused on the support. In the last Friday, the non-agricultural data under the stimulus stimulated to break the 20.0 regional support, which now constitutes the key pressure! It is expected that the continuation of the volatility trend will continue in the day, and the opportunity will be supported by the upward trend of the downside. We must not blindly look down on the break!
Silver: rebound 20.0 short, stop loss 20.20, target 19.60; break below 19.50 rebound 19.60 homeopathic short, stop loss 19.85 target 19.20, break the position to increase short!
Week 2 is just an appetizer. EIA is our main concern tomorrow. Then relying on the recent market analysis, the oil price keeps showing signs of rebound, and the Fed’s interest rate hike continues to stimulate the market, so I think tomorrow night. EIA will be a process of sharp rise. In fact, from the market reaction and the market demand for crude oil to the market, it is a big bullish. In addition, Saudi Arabia has recently increased the exploitation of crude oil in order to maintain its market share. However, the oil organization OPEC needs a balance on this, it will not let it stay in a downturn for a long time, and will not let Saudi Arabia arbitrarily become arbitrarily, so that crude oil will be a factor of over-tightening, and oil prices will not rise. The reason, since the non-agricultural fats have come to say, the timing of the long-term layout of the long-term line has gradually matured, more suggestions to pay attention to the "Guan Ju Jin Lai" public number!
- Don't wait until "illness" to think of "injection", don't forget to have "vaccination"
Many people want to succeed and want to choose a path that others have not taken. In fact, as long as it is the road, it has already been passed. What we have to do is to go longer than others on the road that others have gone through. Going farther than others, walking longer can get out of the distance that others have not left, and if you go further, you can see the scenery that others have not seen. We are always admiring those who are shiny and always feel like they are like gods. They conquer the world with strong and irresistible charm and strength; but never know what price they use, I got a shiny life. If you don't pay, you are not qualified to complain. Be sure to repair the roof when the sun is shining. Don't wait until the rain has gone down to repair the roof. The trouble is big. The market, there can be no risk, and the implementation is not likely to be smooth. For a trader, it is not a profit, but a profit concept that has been established for a long time, and a complete and efficient trading system. This is the core value. Everyone should create their own core values ​​in order to be based on the market.
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